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Crude oil (WTI) seasonality: the best and worst months
Since 1986, crude oil's strongest month on average has been April (+3.39%) and its weakest November (−3.01%). Below: every month's average and median return, how often it rose, and the strongest and weakest days of the year.
Average monthly return of crude oil, 1986 to last month. Strongest month outlined.
Every month
| Month | Average | Median | Years up | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.17% | +1.25% | 55% | 40 |
| February | +0.45% | +2.27% | 59% | 41 |
| March | +2.50% | +3.56% | 61% | 41 |
| April | +3.39% | +2.94% | 63% | 41 |
| May | +2.05% | −0.82% | 46% | 41 |
| June | +0.96% | +2.24% | 56% | 41 |
| July | +1.44% | +0.65% | 66% | 41 |
| August | +1.09% | +0.68% | 54% | 41 |
| September | +1.65% | −0.13% | 49% | 41 |
| October | −2.01% | −0.70% | 48% | 40 |
| November | −3.01% | −3.76% | 35% | 40 |
| December | +0.74% | +2.98% | 55% | 40 |
Strongest and weakest days of the year
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | +2.12% | 73% |
| Apr 22 | +1.79% | 61% |
| Dec 26 | +1.45% | 65% |
| Mar 4 | +1.34% | 61% |
| Apr 29 | +1.22% | 61% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | −1.39% | 33% |
| Mar 9 | −1.25% | 48% |
| Nov 12 | −1.25% | 22% |
| Feb 4 | −1.02% | 41% |
| Nov 28 | −1.01% | 29% |
Average one-day return on each calendar date, across every year it was a trading day.
See every Crude oil day in the calendar →