Crude oil (WTI) in July: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in July in 66% of years (27 of 41), with an average return of +1.44% and a median of +0.65%. That makes July its #5 month of 12.
Average+1.44%
Years up66%
Best year2026 · +21.83%
Worst year2015 · −20.77%
The seasonal path through July
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through July, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29 | +0.93% | 64% |
| Jul 13 | +0.70% | 61% |
| Jul 15 | +0.70% | 59% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22 | −0.57% | 45% |
| Jul 6 | −0.49% | 43% |
| Jul 2 | −0.44% | 39% |
Seasonal trend windows touching July
- ▼ Bearish Jul 16 – Jul 25 · 10 days · seasonal Σ −1.94%
July in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in July |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +21.83% |
| 2025 | +6.37% |
| 2024 | −4.45% |
| 2023 | +15.80% |
| 2022 | −6.75% |
| 2021 | +0.65% |
| 2020 | +2.55% |
| 2019 | +0.19% |
| 2018 | −7.27% |
| 2017 | +8.97% |
Questions
Is July a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +1.44% since 1986, rising in 66% of years. But the range is wide, from −20.77% in 2015 to +21.83% in 2026, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in July?
Jul 29 (+0.93%, up 64% of years), Jul 13 (+0.70%, up 61% of years), Jul 15 (+0.70%, up 59% of years).