Bitcoin in July: seasonality and history
Since 2011, Bitcoin has risen in July in 69% of years (11 of 16), with an average return of +8.09% and a median of +8.13%. That makes July its #9 month of 12.
Average+8.09%
Years up69%
Best year2012 · +39.53%
Worst year2011 · −17.38%
The seasonal path through July
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through July, all years since 2011.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27 | +1.76% | 65% |
| Jul 17 | +1.71% | 69% |
| Jul 6 | +1.55% | 81% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22 | −1.65% | 35% |
| Jul 5 | −1.51% | 38% |
| Jul 1 | −1.37% | 38% |
July in recent years
| Year | Bitcoin in July |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +7.27% |
| 2025 | +8.05% |
| 2024 | +3.10% |
| 2023 | −4.09% |
| 2022 | +17.95% |
| 2021 | +18.79% |
| 2020 | +23.92% |
| 2019 | −6.76% |
| 2018 | +21.49% |
| 2017 | +15.90% |
Questions
Is July a good month for Bitcoin?
On average, yes: +8.09% since 2011, rising in 69% of years. But the range is wide, from −17.38% in 2011 to +39.53% in 2012, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in July?
Jul 27 (+1.76%, up 65% of years), Jul 17 (+1.71%, up 69% of years), Jul 6 (+1.55%, up 81% of years).