S&P 500 in July: seasonality and history
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has risen in July in 56% of years (39 of 70), with an average return of +1.00% and a median of +1.14%. That makes July its #5 month of 12.
Average+1.00%
Years up56%
Best year2022 · +9.11%
Worst year2002 · −7.90%
The seasonal path through July
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through July, all years since 1957.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3 | +0.32% | 75% |
| Jul 1 | +0.26% | 71% |
| Jul 14 | +0.24% | 71% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23 | −0.17% | 46% |
| Jul 18 | −0.15% | 42% |
| Jul 21 | −0.13% | 43% |
Seasonal trend windows touching July
- ▲ Bullish Jun 27 – Jul 17 · 20 days · seasonal Σ +2.05%
- ▼ Bearish Jul 18 – Jul 28 · 11 days · seasonal Σ −0.51%
July in recent years
| Year | S&P 500 in July |
|---|---|
| 2026 | −0.13% |
| 2025 | +2.17% |
| 2024 | +1.13% |
| 2023 | +3.11% |
| 2022 | +9.11% |
| 2021 | +2.27% |
| 2020 | +5.51% |
| 2019 | +1.31% |
| 2018 | +3.60% |
| 2017 | +1.93% |
Questions
Is July a good month for the S&P 500?
On average, yes: +1.00% since 1957, rising in 56% of years. But the range is wide, from −7.90% in 2002 to +9.11% in 2022, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in July?
Jul 3 (+0.32%, up 75% of years), Jul 1 (+0.26%, up 71% of years), Jul 14 (+0.24%, up 71% of years).