Crude oil (WTI) in August: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in August in 54% of years (22 of 41), with an average return of +1.09% and a median of +0.68%. That makes August its #7 month of 12.
Average+1.09%
Years up54%
Best year1986 · +41.85%
Worst year1994 · −13.30%
The seasonal path through August
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through August, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23 | +0.56% | 54% |
| Aug 12 | +0.48% | 59% |
| Aug 6 | +0.43% | 37% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16 | −0.54% | 36% |
| Aug 1 | −0.53% | 34% |
| Aug 14 | −0.46% | 38% |
August in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in August |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +1.29% |
| 2025 | −7.58% |
| 2024 | −5.60% |
| 2023 | +2.24% |
| 2022 | −9.20% |
| 2021 | −7.37% |
| 2020 | +5.81% |
| 2019 | −5.94% |
| 2018 | +1.51% |
| 2017 | −5.86% |
Questions
Is August a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +1.09% since 1986, rising in 54% of years. But the range is wide, from −13.30% in 1994 to +41.85% in 1986, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in August?
Aug 23 (+0.56%, up 54% of years), Aug 12 (+0.48%, up 59% of years), Aug 6 (+0.43%, up 37% of years).