Crude oil (WTI) in September: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in September in 49% of years (20 of 41), with an average return of +1.65% and a median of −0.13%. That makes September its #4 month of 12.
Average+1.65%
Years up49%
Best year1990 · +44.01%
Worst year2001 · −13.86%
The seasonal path through September
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through September, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | +0.93% | 67% |
| Sep 14 | +0.66% | 61% |
| Sep 6 | +0.51% | 70% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | −0.89% | 57% |
| Sep 7 | −0.44% | 36% |
| Sep 2 | −0.37% | 61% |
Seasonal trend windows touching September
- ▲ Bullish Sep 12 – Sep 20 · 9 days · seasonal Σ +2.71%
September in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in September |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +5.43% |
| 2025 | −2.56% |
| 2024 | −7.31% |
| 2023 | +8.56% |
| 2022 | −11.23% |
| 2021 | +9.53% |
| 2020 | −5.61% |
| 2019 | −1.87% |
| 2018 | +4.94% |
| 2017 | +9.40% |
Questions
Is September a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +1.65% since 1986, rising in 49% of years. But the range is wide, from −13.86% in 2001 to +44.01% in 1990, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in September?
Sep 27 (+0.93%, up 67% of years), Sep 14 (+0.66%, up 61% of years), Sep 6 (+0.51%, up 70% of years).