Crude oil (WTI) in October: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in October in 48% of years (19 of 40), with an average return of −2.01% and a median of −0.70%. That makes October its #11 month of 12.
Average−2.01%
Years up48%
Best year2011 · +17.66%
Worst year2008 · −32.62%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | +0.86% | 59% |
| Oct 11 | +0.60% | 59% |
| Oct 9 | +0.54% | 59% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | −0.93% | 42% |
| Oct 2 | −0.71% | 41% |
| Oct 19 | −0.70% | 36% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▼ Bearish Oct 14 – Nov 20 · 38 days · seasonal Σ −7.29%
October in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | −2.23% |
| 2024 | +1.60% |
| 2023 | −10.76% |
| 2022 | +8.86% |
| 2021 | +11.38% |
| 2020 | −11.01% |
| 2019 | +0.20% |
| 2018 | −10.84% |
| 2017 | +5.24% |
| 2016 | −2.86% |
Questions
Is October a bad month for crude oil?
On average, yes: −2.01% since 1986, rising in 48% of years. But the range is wide, from −32.62% in 2008 to +17.66% in 2011, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 25 (+0.86%, up 59% of years), Oct 11 (+0.60%, up 59% of years), Oct 9 (+0.54%, up 59% of years).