Dow Jones Industrial Average in October: seasonality and history
Since 1897, the Dow has risen in October in 57% of years (73 of 128), with an average return of +0.39% and a median of +0.76%. That makes October its #9 month of 12.
Average+0.39%
Years up57%
Best year2022 · +13.95%
Worst year1987 · −23.22%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 1897.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | +0.58% | 68% |
| Oct 1 | +0.27% | 62% |
| Oct 30 | +0.26% | 53% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | −0.39% | 48% |
| Oct 9 | −0.29% | 46% |
| Oct 26 | −0.18% | 44% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▼ Bearish Oct 7 – Oct 12 · 6 days · seasonal Σ −0.53%
- ▼ Bearish Oct 22 – Oct 29 · 8 days · seasonal Σ −0.50%
October in recent years
| Year | Dow in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +2.51% |
| 2024 | −1.34% |
| 2023 | −1.36% |
| 2022 | +13.95% |
| 2021 | +5.84% |
| 2020 | −4.61% |
| 2019 | +0.48% |
| 2018 | −5.07% |
| 2017 | +4.34% |
| 2016 | −0.91% |
Questions
Is October a good month for the Dow?
On average, yes: +0.39% since 1897, rising in 57% of years. But the range is wide, from −23.22% in 1987 to +13.95% in 2022, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 20 (+0.58%, up 68% of years), Oct 1 (+0.27%, up 62% of years), Oct 30 (+0.26%, up 53% of years).