Gold in October: seasonality and history
Since 2000, gold has risen in October in 50% of years (13 of 26), with an average return of +0.13% and a median of +0.35%. That makes October its #11 month of 12.
Average+0.13%
Years up50%
Best year2023 · +6.87%
Worst year2008 · −18.01%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 2000.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | +0.68% | 79% |
| Oct 25 | +0.60% | 95% |
| Oct 13 | +0.41% | 58% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | −0.59% | 30% |
| Oct 4 | −0.36% | 32% |
| Oct 23 | −0.36% | 37% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▼ Bearish Sep 23 – Oct 4 · 12 days · seasonal Σ −1.55%
- ▲ Bullish Oct 5 – Oct 14 · 10 days · seasonal Σ +2.04%
- ▼ Bearish Oct 15 – Oct 23 · 9 days · seasonal Σ −1.10%
October in recent years
| Year | Gold in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +3.18% |
| 2024 | +3.38% |
| 2023 | +6.87% |
| 2022 | −1.87% |
| 2021 | +1.53% |
| 2020 | −0.82% |
| 2019 | +3.12% |
| 2018 | +1.75% |
| 2017 | −1.13% |
| 2016 | −3.18% |
Questions
Is October a good month for gold?
On average, yes: +0.13% since 2000, rising in 50% of years. But the range is wide, from −18.01% in 2008 to +6.87% in 2023, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 6 (+0.68%, up 79% of years), Oct 25 (+0.60%, up 95% of years), Oct 13 (+0.41%, up 58% of years).