Bitcoin in October: seasonality and history
Since 2010, Bitcoin has risen in October in 69% of years (11 of 16), with an average return of +26.58% and a median of +12.94%. That makes October its #3 month of 12.
Average+26.58%
Years up69%
Best year2010 · +210.98%
Worst year2011 · −36.52%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 2010.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | +3.12% | 62% |
| Oct 25 | +2.77% | 62% |
| Oct 29 | +2.51% | 75% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | −1.32% | 24% |
| Oct 17 | −1.28% | 53% |
| Oct 24 | −0.97% | 44% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▲ Bullish Oct 19 – Nov 6 · 19 days · seasonal Σ +23.81%
October in recent years
| Year | Bitcoin in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | −3.95% |
| 2024 | +10.87% |
| 2023 | +28.55% |
| 2022 | +5.48% |
| 2021 | +40.03% |
| 2020 | +27.79% |
| 2019 | +10.92% |
| 2018 | −4.65% |
| 2017 | +49.09% |
| 2016 | +14.96% |
Questions
Is October a good month for Bitcoin?
On average, yes: +26.58% since 2010, rising in 69% of years. But the range is wide, from −36.52% in 2011 to +210.98% in 2010, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 27 (+3.12%, up 62% of years), Oct 25 (+2.77%, up 62% of years), Oct 29 (+2.51%, up 75% of years).