Russell 2000 in October: seasonality and history
Since 1987, the Russell 2000 has risen in October in 56% of years (22 of 39), with an average return of −0.54% and a median of +1.76%. That makes October its #11 month of 12.
Average−0.54%
Years up56%
Best year2011 · +15.04%
Worst year1987 · −30.77%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 1987.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | +0.64% | 57% |
| Oct 31 | +0.51% | 71% |
| Oct 13 | +0.39% | 55% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | −0.71% | 34% |
| Oct 9 | −0.56% | 45% |
| Oct 27 | −0.55% | 36% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▼ Bearish Oct 17 – Oct 27 · 11 days · seasonal Σ −2.05%
- ▲ Bullish Oct 28 – Nov 6 · 10 days · seasonal Σ +3.76%
October in recent years
| Year | Russell 2000 in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +1.76% |
| 2024 | −1.49% |
| 2023 | −6.88% |
| 2022 | +10.94% |
| 2021 | +4.21% |
| 2020 | +2.04% |
| 2019 | +2.57% |
| 2018 | −10.91% |
| 2017 | +0.78% |
| 2016 | −4.81% |
Questions
Is October a bad month for the Russell 2000?
On average, yes: −0.54% since 1987, rising in 56% of years. But the range is wide, from −30.77% in 1987 to +15.04% in 2011, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 28 (+0.64%, up 57% of years), Oct 31 (+0.51%, up 71% of years), Oct 13 (+0.39%, up 55% of years).