S&P 500 in October: seasonality and history
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has risen in October in 61% of years (42 of 69), with an average return of +0.99% and a median of +1.40%. That makes October its #6 month of 12.
Average+0.99%
Years up61%
Best year1974 · +16.30%
Worst year1987 · −21.76%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 1957.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | +0.53% | 70% |
| Oct 20 | +0.36% | 61% |
| Oct 13 | +0.32% | 52% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | −0.58% | 44% |
| Oct 22 | −0.32% | 35% |
| Oct 9 | −0.22% | 50% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▲ Bullish Oct 1 – Oct 6 · 6 days · seasonal Σ +0.86%
- ▲ Bullish Oct 10 – Oct 18 · 9 days · seasonal Σ +0.77%
- ▼ Bearish Oct 22 – Oct 27 · 6 days · seasonal Σ −0.98%
- ▲ Bullish Oct 28 – Nov 16 · 20 days · seasonal Σ +2.65%
October in recent years
| Year | S&P 500 in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +2.27% |
| 2024 | −0.99% |
| 2023 | −2.20% |
| 2022 | +7.99% |
| 2021 | +6.91% |
| 2020 | −2.77% |
| 2019 | +2.04% |
| 2018 | −6.94% |
| 2017 | +2.22% |
| 2016 | −1.94% |
Questions
Is October a good month for the S&P 500?
On average, yes: +0.99% since 1957, rising in 61% of years. But the range is wide, from −21.76% in 1987 to +16.30% in 1974, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 28 (+0.53%, up 70% of years), Oct 20 (+0.36%, up 61% of years), Oct 13 (+0.32%, up 52% of years).