Nasdaq-100 in October: seasonality and history
Since 1985, the Nasdaq-100 has risen in October in 63% of years (26 of 41), with an average return of +1.76% and a median of +3.96%. That makes October its #5 month of 12.
Average+1.76%
Years up63%
Best year2002 · +18.86%
Worst year1987 · −26.98%
The seasonal path through October
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through October, all years since 1985.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | +1.09% | 70% |
| Oct 21 | +0.76% | 63% |
| Oct 13 | +0.68% | 63% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | −0.69% | 39% |
| Oct 7 | −0.56% | 32% |
| Oct 2 | −0.39% | 55% |
Seasonal trend windows touching October
- ▲ Bullish Oct 10 – Oct 21 · 12 days · seasonal Σ +2.50%
- ▼ Bearish Oct 22 – Oct 27 · 6 days · seasonal Σ −1.37%
- ▲ Bullish Oct 28 – Nov 14 · 18 days · seasonal Σ +4.51%
October in recent years
| Year | Nasdaq-100 in October |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +4.77% |
| 2024 | −0.85% |
| 2023 | −2.08% |
| 2022 | +3.96% |
| 2021 | +7.90% |
| 2020 | −3.20% |
| 2019 | +4.31% |
| 2018 | −8.66% |
| 2017 | +4.50% |
| 2016 | −1.53% |
Questions
Is October a good month for the Nasdaq-100?
On average, yes: +1.76% since 1985, rising in 63% of years. But the range is wide, from −26.98% in 1987 to +18.86% in 2002, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in October?
Oct 28 (+1.09%, up 70% of years), Oct 21 (+0.76%, up 63% of years), Oct 13 (+0.68%, up 63% of years).