Crude oil (WTI) in November: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in November in 35% of years (14 of 40), with an average return of −3.01% and a median of −3.76%. That makes November its #12 month of 12.
Average−3.01%
Years up35%
Best year2020 · +26.68%
Worst year2018 · −22.02%
The seasonal path through November
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through November, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | +0.92% | 71% |
| Nov 21 | +0.63% | 61% |
| Nov 9 | +0.37% | 57% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | −1.25% | 22% |
| Nov 28 | −1.01% | 29% |
| Nov 26 | −0.69% | 35% |
Seasonal trend windows touching November
- ▼ Bearish Oct 14 – Nov 20 · 38 days · seasonal Σ −7.29%
- ▼ Bearish Nov 23 – Dec 11 · 19 days · seasonal Σ −5.70%
November in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in November |
|---|---|
| 2025 | −3.98% |
| 2024 | −1.82% |
| 2023 | −6.25% |
| 2022 | −6.91% |
| 2021 | −20.81% |
| 2020 | +26.68% |
| 2019 | +1.83% |
| 2018 | −22.02% |
| 2017 | +5.55% |
| 2016 | +5.51% |
Questions
Is November a bad month for crude oil?
On average, yes: −3.01% since 1986, rising in 35% of years. But the range is wide, from −22.02% in 2018 to +26.68% in 2020, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in November?
Nov 22 (+0.92%, up 71% of years), Nov 21 (+0.63%, up 61% of years), Nov 9 (+0.37%, up 57% of years).