Crude oil (WTI) in December: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in December in 55% of years (22 of 40), with an average return of +0.74% and a median of +2.98%. That makes December its #9 month of 12.
Average+0.74%
Years up55%
Best year1986 · +18.20%
Worst year2000 · −20.71%
The seasonal path through December
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through December, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 | +1.45% | 65% |
| Dec 22 | +1.07% | 59% |
| Dec 23 | +0.80% | 72% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 5 | −0.89% | 36% |
| Dec 4 | −0.69% | 36% |
| Dec 20 | −0.67% | 42% |
Seasonal trend windows touching December
- ▼ Bearish Nov 23 – Dec 11 · 19 days · seasonal Σ −5.70%
- ▲ Bullish Dec 21 – Dec 31 · 10 days · seasonal Σ +4.47%
December in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in December |
|---|---|
| 2025 | −1.93% |
| 2024 | +5.47% |
| 2023 | −5.67% |
| 2022 | −0.36% |
| 2021 | +13.64% |
| 2020 | +7.01% |
| 2019 | +10.68% |
| 2018 | −10.84% |
| 2017 | +5.26% |
| 2016 | +8.66% |
Questions
Is December a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +0.74% since 1986, rising in 55% of years. But the range is wide, from −20.71% in 2000 to +18.20% in 1986, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in December?
Dec 26 (+1.45%, up 65% of years), Dec 22 (+1.07%, up 59% of years), Dec 23 (+0.80%, up 72% of years).