Crude oil (WTI) in January: seasonality and history
Since 1987, crude oil has risen in January in 55% of years (22 of 40), with an average return of +1.17% and a median of +1.25%. That makes January its #6 month of 12.
Average+1.17%
Years up55%
Best year2019 · +18.45%
Worst year1991 · −23.10%
The seasonal path through January
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through January, all years since 1987.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21 | +1.03% | 52% |
| Jan 14 | +1.01% | 68% |
| Jan 2 | +1.01% | 65% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17 | −0.91% | 64% |
| Jan 20 | −0.79% | 36% |
| Jan 15 | −0.79% | 38% |
January in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in January |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +13.57% |
| 2025 | +1.13% |
| 2024 | +5.86% |
| 2023 | −1.73% |
| 2022 | +17.21% |
| 2021 | +7.58% |
| 2020 | −15.56% |
| 2019 | +18.45% |
| 2018 | +7.13% |
| 2017 | −1.69% |
Questions
Is January a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +1.17% since 1987, rising in 55% of years. But the range is wide, from −23.10% in 1991 to +18.45% in 2019, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in January?
Jan 21 (+1.03%, up 52% of years), Jan 14 (+1.01%, up 68% of years), Jan 2 (+1.01%, up 65% of years).