Bitcoin in January: seasonality and history
Since 2011, Bitcoin has risen in January in 62% of years (10 of 16), with an average return of +8.76% and a median of +5.18%. That makes January its #8 month of 12.
Average+8.76%
Years up62%
Best year2011 · +75.05%
Worst year2015 · −32.08%
The seasonal path through January
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through January, all years since 2011.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 | +2.68% | 50% |
| Jan 5 | +2.42% | 56% |
| Jan 14 | +1.88% | 62% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11 | −1.33% | 50% |
| Jan 9 | −1.31% | 44% |
| Jan 17 | −1.18% | 31% |
Seasonal trend windows touching January
- ▲ Bullish Jan 1 – Jan 8 · 8 days · seasonal Σ +8.57%
- ▼ Bearish Jan 9 – Jan 18 · 10 days · seasonal Σ −3.73%
January in recent years
| Year | Bitcoin in January |
|---|---|
| 2026 | −10.16% |
| 2025 | +9.61% |
| 2024 | +0.75% |
| 2023 | +39.84% |
| 2022 | −16.89% |
| 2021 | +14.18% |
| 2020 | +29.98% |
| 2019 | −7.61% |
| 2018 | −27.80% |
| 2017 | +0.69% |
Questions
Is January a good month for Bitcoin?
On average, yes: +8.76% since 2011, rising in 62% of years. But the range is wide, from −32.08% in 2015 to +75.05% in 2011, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in January?
Jan 20 (+2.68%, up 50% of years), Jan 5 (+2.42%, up 56% of years), Jan 14 (+1.88%, up 62% of years).