Nasdaq-100 in January: seasonality and history
Since 1986, the Nasdaq-100 has risen in January in 71% of years (29 of 41), with an average return of +2.49% and a median of +2.22%. That makes January its #2 month of 12.
Average+2.49%
Years up71%
Best year1987 · +17.87%
Worst year2008 · −11.68%
The seasonal path through January
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through January, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3 | +0.78% | 52% |
| Jan 10 | +0.60% | 79% |
| Jan 31 | +0.55% | 66% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 | −0.48% | 35% |
| Jan 27 | −0.48% | 47% |
| Jan 4 | −0.22% | 54% |
Seasonal trend windows touching January
- ▲ Bullish Jan 2 – Jan 19 · 18 days · seasonal Σ +3.67%
- ▲ Bullish Jan 28 – Feb 15 · 19 days · seasonal Σ +3.50%
January in recent years
| Year | Nasdaq-100 in January |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +1.20% |
| 2025 | +2.22% |
| 2024 | +1.85% |
| 2023 | +10.62% |
| 2022 | −8.52% |
| 2021 | +0.29% |
| 2020 | +2.96% |
| 2019 | +9.11% |
| 2018 | +8.65% |
| 2017 | +5.20% |
Questions
Is January a good month for the Nasdaq-100?
On average, yes: +2.49% since 1986, rising in 71% of years. But the range is wide, from −11.68% in 2008 to +17.87% in 1987, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in January?
Jan 3 (+0.78%, up 52% of years), Jan 10 (+0.60%, up 79% of years), Jan 31 (+0.55%, up 66% of years).