Crude oil (WTI) in February: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in February in 59% of years (24 of 41), with an average return of +0.45% and a median of +2.27%. That makes February its #10 month of 12.
Average+0.45%
Years up59%
Best year2021 · +17.82%
Worst year1986 · −32.43%
The seasonal path through February
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through February, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13 | +1.06% | 59% |
| Feb 22 | +0.96% | 71% |
| Feb 19 | +0.84% | 68% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 | −1.02% | 41% |
| Feb 28 | −0.51% | 39% |
| Feb 21 | −0.44% | 39% |
February in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in February |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +2.78% |
| 2025 | −3.82% |
| 2024 | +3.18% |
| 2023 | −2.31% |
| 2022 | +8.59% |
| 2021 | +17.82% |
| 2020 | −13.19% |
| 2019 | +6.38% |
| 2018 | −4.77% |
| 2017 | +2.27% |
Questions
Is February a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +0.45% since 1986, rising in 59% of years. But the range is wide, from −32.43% in 1986 to +17.82% in 2021, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in February?
Feb 13 (+1.06%, up 59% of years), Feb 22 (+0.96%, up 71% of years), Feb 19 (+0.84%, up 68% of years).