Crude oil (WTI) in March: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in March in 61% of years (25 of 41), with an average return of +2.50% and a median of +3.56%. That makes March its #2 month of 12.
Average+2.50%
Years up61%
Best year2026 · +51.27%
Worst year2020 · −54.24%
The seasonal path through March
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through March, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | +1.34% | 61% |
| Mar 21 | +1.17% | 67% |
| Mar 12 | +1.13% | 59% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | −1.39% | 33% |
| Mar 9 | −1.25% | 48% |
| Mar 8 | −0.81% | 37% |
Seasonal trend windows touching March
- ▲ Bullish Mar 21 – Mar 26 · 6 days · seasonal Σ +3.10%
March in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in March |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +51.27% |
| 2025 | +2.47% |
| 2024 | +6.27% |
| 2023 | −1.79% |
| 2022 | +4.76% |
| 2021 | −3.80% |
| 2020 | −54.24% |
| 2019 | +5.10% |
| 2018 | +5.35% |
| 2017 | −6.31% |
Questions
Is March a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +2.50% since 1986, rising in 61% of years. But the range is wide, from −54.24% in 2020 to +51.27% in 2026, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in March?
Mar 4 (+1.34%, up 61% of years), Mar 21 (+1.17%, up 67% of years), Mar 12 (+1.13%, up 59% of years).