Crude oil (WTI) in April: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in April in 63% of years (26 of 41), with an average return of +3.39% and a median of +2.94%. That makes April its #1 month of 12.
Average+3.39%
Years up63%
Best year1986 · +30.54%
Worst year2025 · −18.56%
The seasonal path through April
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through April, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | +2.12% | 73% |
| Apr 22 | +1.79% | 61% |
| Apr 29 | +1.22% | 61% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | −0.85% | 66% |
| Apr 24 | −0.67% | 37% |
| Apr 13 | −0.49% | 40% |
Seasonal trend windows touching April
- ▲ Bullish Apr 1 – Apr 23 · 23 days · seasonal Σ +8.15%
April in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in April |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +3.64% |
| 2025 | −18.56% |
| 2024 | −1.49% |
| 2023 | +1.47% |
| 2022 | +4.40% |
| 2021 | +7.47% |
| 2020 | −8.01% |
| 2019 | +6.27% |
| 2018 | +5.59% |
| 2017 | −2.51% |
Questions
Is April a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +3.39% since 1986, rising in 63% of years. But the range is wide, from −18.56% in 2025 to +30.54% in 1986, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in April?
Apr 2 (+2.12%, up 73% of years), Apr 22 (+1.79%, up 61% of years), Apr 29 (+1.22%, up 61% of years).