Crude oil (WTI) in May: seasonality and history
Since 1986, crude oil has risen in May in 46% of years (19 of 41), with an average return of +2.05% and a median of −0.82%. That makes May its #3 month of 12.
Average+2.05%
Years up46%
Best year2020 · +88.38%
Worst year2012 · −17.49%
The seasonal path through May
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through May, all years since 1986.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| May 8 | +0.91% | 69% |
| May 5 | +0.66% | 62% |
| May 29 | +0.61% | 46% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| May 31 | −0.99% | 24% |
| May 27 | −0.76% | 52% |
| May 2 | −0.58% | 32% |
May in recent years
| Year | Crude oil in May |
|---|---|
| 2026 | −16.86% |
| 2025 | +4.43% |
| 2024 | −6.03% |
| 2023 | −11.32% |
| 2022 | +9.53% |
| 2021 | +4.31% |
| 2020 | +88.38% |
| 2019 | −16.29% |
| 2018 | −2.23% |
| 2017 | −2.05% |
Questions
Is May a good month for crude oil?
On average, yes: +2.05% since 1986, rising in 46% of years. But the range is wide, from −17.49% in 2012 to +88.38% in 2020, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in May?
May 8 (+0.91%, up 69% of years), May 5 (+0.66%, up 62% of years), May 29 (+0.61%, up 46% of years).