Dow Jones Industrial Average in May: seasonality and history
Since 1897, the Dow has risen in May in 55% of years (71 of 130), with an average return of −0.01% and a median of +0.29%. That makes May its #10 month of 12.
Average−0.01%
Years up55%
Best year1898 · +14.65%
Worst year1940 · −21.70%
The seasonal path through May
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through May, all years since 1897.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| May 26 | +0.23% | 58% |
| May 4 | +0.19% | 62% |
| May 29 | +0.17% | 63% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| May 13 | −0.24% | 45% |
| May 31 | −0.19% | 45% |
| May 7 | −0.18% | 46% |
Seasonal trend windows touching May
- ▲ Bullish Apr 29 – May 6 · 8 days · seasonal Σ +0.76%
- ▼ Bearish May 7 – May 14 · 8 days · seasonal Σ −0.58%
- ▼ Bearish May 18 – May 25 · 8 days · seasonal Σ −0.60%
May in recent years
| Year | Dow in May |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +2.78% |
| 2025 | +3.94% |
| 2024 | +2.30% |
| 2023 | −3.49% |
| 2022 | +0.04% |
| 2021 | +1.93% |
| 2020 | +4.26% |
| 2019 | −6.69% |
| 2018 | +1.05% |
| 2017 | +0.33% |
Questions
Is May a bad month for the Dow?
On average, yes: −0.01% since 1897, rising in 55% of years. But the range is wide, from −21.70% in 1940 to +14.65% in 1898, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in May?
May 26 (+0.23%, up 58% of years), May 4 (+0.19%, up 62% of years), May 29 (+0.17%, up 63% of years).