Dow Jones Industrial Average in February: seasonality and history
Since 1897, the Dow has risen in February in 52% of years (68 of 130), with an average return of −0.17% and a median of +0.23%. That makes February its #11 month of 12.
Average−0.17%
Years up52%
Best year1931 · +13.20%
Worst year1933 · −15.62%
The seasonal path through February
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through February, all years since 1897.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 12 | +0.22% | 59% |
| Feb 13 | +0.20% | 55% |
| Feb 11 | +0.16% | 52% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23 | −0.33% | 41% |
| Feb 25 | −0.21% | 46% |
| Feb 19 | −0.10% | 43% |
Seasonal trend windows touching February
- ▲ Bullish Jan 25 – Feb 3 · 10 days · seasonal Σ +0.77%
- ▲ Bullish Feb 11 – Feb 15 · 5 days · seasonal Σ +0.74%
- ▼ Bearish Feb 16 – Feb 29 · 14 days · seasonal Σ −0.71%
February in recent years
| Year | Dow in February |
|---|---|
| 2026 | +0.17% |
| 2025 | −1.58% |
| 2024 | +2.22% |
| 2023 | −4.19% |
| 2022 | −3.53% |
| 2021 | +3.17% |
| 2020 | −10.07% |
| 2019 | +3.67% |
| 2018 | −4.28% |
| 2017 | +4.77% |
Questions
Is February a bad month for the Dow?
On average, yes: −0.17% since 1897, rising in 52% of years. But the range is wide, from −15.62% in 1933 to +13.20% in 1931, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in February?
Feb 12 (+0.22%, up 59% of years), Feb 13 (+0.20%, up 55% of years), Feb 11 (+0.16%, up 52% of years).