Dow Jones Industrial Average in December: seasonality and history
Since 1896, the Dow has risen in December in 71% of years (92 of 130), with an average return of +1.32% and a median of +1.76%. That makes December its #2 month of 12.
Average+1.32%
Years up71%
Best year1903 · +10.78%
Worst year1931 · −17.01%
The seasonal path through December
Cumulative sum of each day's average return through December, all years since 1896.
| Strongest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26 | +0.39% | 71% |
| Dec 31 | +0.28% | 64% |
| Dec 29 | +0.26% | 57% |
| Weakest days | Avg | Up |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 11 | −0.23% | 51% |
| Dec 12 | −0.18% | 49% |
| Dec 8 | −0.15% | 49% |
Seasonal trend windows touching December
- ▼ Bearish Dec 8 – Dec 13 · 6 days · seasonal Σ −0.69%
- ▲ Bullish Dec 14 – Dec 31 · 17 days · seasonal Σ +1.95%
December in recent years
| Year | Dow in December |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.73% |
| 2024 | −5.27% |
| 2023 | +4.84% |
| 2022 | −4.17% |
| 2021 | +5.38% |
| 2020 | +3.27% |
| 2019 | +1.74% |
| 2018 | −8.66% |
| 2017 | +1.84% |
| 2016 | +3.34% |
Questions
Is December a good month for the Dow?
On average, yes: +1.32% since 1896, rising in 71% of years. But the range is wide, from −17.01% in 1931 to +10.78% in 1903, so an average is a tendency, not a forecast.
What are the strongest days in December?
Dec 26 (+0.39%, up 71% of years), Dec 31 (+0.28%, up 64% of years), Dec 29 (+0.26%, up 57% of years).