The presidential election cycle: How do stocks do in each year of a presidential term?
Averaging the S&P 500's calendar-year return by year of the US presidential term since 1958, the strongest has been the pre-election year (+16.68%).
| Year of term | Average | Years up | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-election year | +10.56% | 71% | 17 |
| Midterm year | +1.25% | 53% | 17 |
| Pre-election year | +16.68% | 88% | 17 |
| Election year | +8.21% | 82% | 17 |
Patterns describe the past and can stop working. Not investment advice.
See it in the calendar →Other patterns
The Santa Claus rallyDoes the market really rally at the end of December?Sell in May and go awayIs the May–October stretch really weaker?The September effectIs September the worst month for stocks?The best days of the yearWhich calendar days have been strongest for stocks?The worst days of the yearWhich calendar days have been weakest for stocks?The turn-of-the-month effectDo stocks do better around the start of each month?The January barometerAs goes January, so goes the year?