Midterm-year seasonality: How do stocks move through a midterm election year?
Midterm election years (1958 to 2022, 17 of them) have been the weakest of the four-year presidential cycle on a full-year basis, rising in 9 of 17 and averaging +1.25%. The month-by-month path through those years, against all years: 2026 is a midterm year: the S&P 500 is +12.35% for the year through October 19.
Average S&P 500 return by month in midterm years. Strongest month outlined.
| Month | Midterm years | All years |
|---|---|---|
| January | −1.40% | +1.10% |
| February | +0.25% | +0.00% |
| March | +1.18% | +0.88% |
| April | −0.87% | +1.56% |
| May | −1.17% | +0.49% |
| June | −2.02% | +0.11% |
| July | +1.07% | +1.00% |
| August | −0.48% | +0.20% |
| September | −1.74% | −0.81% |
| October | +3.44% | +0.99% |
| November | +2.60% | +1.77% |
| December | +0.34% | +1.26% |
Every midterm year
| Year | Full year |
|---|---|
| 2022 | −19.44% |
| 2018 | −6.24% |
| 2014 | +11.39% |
| 2010 | +12.78% |
| 2006 | +13.62% |
| 2002 | −23.37% |
| 1998 | +26.67% |
| 1994 | −1.54% |
| 1990 | −6.56% |
| 1986 | +14.62% |
| 1982 | +14.76% |
| 1978 | +1.06% |
| 1974 | −29.72% |
| 1970 | +0.10% |
| 1966 | −13.09% |
| 1962 | −11.81% |
| 1958 | +38.06% |
Patterns describe the past and can stop working. Not investment advice.
See it in the calendar →Other patterns
The Santa Claus rallyDoes the market really rally at the end of December?Sell in May and go awayIs the May–October stretch really weaker?The September effectIs September the worst month for stocks?The best days of the yearWhich calendar days have been strongest for stocks?The worst days of the yearWhich calendar days have been weakest for stocks?The turn-of-the-month effectDo stocks do better around the start of each month?The presidential election cycleHow do stocks do in each year of a presidential term?The January barometerAs goes January, so goes the year?Options expiration and triple witchingHow do stocks do on opex days and weeks?The pre-holiday effectDo stocks rise before market holidays?The day-of-the-week effectWhich day of the week is best for stocks?