The pre-holiday effect: Do stocks rise before market holidays?
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has averaged +0.201% on the last trading day before a market holiday, rising 64% of the time, against +0.035% and 53% for all trading days. The first session after the holiday has averaged +0.050%.
Holiday by holiday
| Holiday | Day before | Up | Day after | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Year's Day | +0.045% | 56% | +0.194% | 59 |
| Martin Luther King Jr. Day | +0.187% | 66% | −0.281% | 29 |
| Presidents' Day | −0.054% | 46% | −0.182% | 68 |
| Good Friday | +0.325% | 69% | −0.146% | 70 |
| Memorial Day | +0.251% | 66% | +0.203% | 68 |
| Juneteenth | +0.232% | 60% | +0.227% | 5 |
| Independence Day | +0.221% | 67% | −0.034% | 70 |
| Labor Day | +0.238% | 67% | −0.131% | 70 |
| Election Day | +0.185% | 53% | +0.195% | 15 |
| Thanksgiving | +0.337% | 77% | +0.267% | 69 |
| Christmas | +0.227% | 65% | +0.356% | 68 |
Scheduled market holidays only; one-off closures (funerals, storms, September 2001, the 1968 paperwork crisis) are left out. Juneteenth since 2022; Election Day closures until 1980.
Patterns describe the past and can stop working. Not investment advice.
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